Having a good understanding of blackjack odds is an essential part of succeeding at blackjack, so, if you find yourself wanting to take a crack at this popular game you’ve come to the right place.
In this guide, we will thoroughly explain the probability of winning at blackjack and review all of the various blackjack odds per card or per hand. After reading this article, you will be well equipped to play any form of blackjack, understand house odds for blackjack, and how to set yourself up for long-term success – so, without further ado, let’s dive into it.
Players’ Odds in Blackjack
Millions of blackjack players have tried to beat the odds at blackjack – indeed, the Las Vegas Journal reported that casino players in Las Vegas wagered over $7 billion on blackjack in 2022.
The odds of winning blackjack vary based on the table rules – rules may include re-splitting aces, dealer standing or staying on soft 17, the number of decks, etc. No matter what the rules are there is a very basic strategy you should follow in order to give yourself the best possible odds of winning blackjack hands at the casino.
Basic blackjack strategy involves making basic decisions based on your (the player’s) hand versus the dealer’s upcard. Understanding the probability of each possible hand scenario is critical to contributing to increased odds of winning blackjack. Having this foundational knowledge will inform you when to hit, double, split, stand, or surrender. One easy way to start is by reviewing the odds of busting based on your starting hand, which is illustrated in the below table.
Furthermore, card counting is a technique that you can practice and master that will greatly improve your odds of winning at blackjack. By keeping track of the high and low-value cards that have been dealt thus far, you can adjust your bets accordingly and improve your Return to Player (RTP) percentage. For further reference, here is a video from WIRED that better explains the concept of card counting.
And lastly, maximizing payouts involves being aware of the different blackjack variations and their respective payout rates. Some games offer more favorable payouts for specific hands, and you should seek out the best variants such as 3:2 on blackjack as opposed to 6:5.
Player’s Hand Value Probability of Busting 11 or lower 0% 12 31% 13 39% 14 56% 15 58% 16 62% 17 69% 18 77% 19 85% 20 92% 21 100% Odds of Winning at Blackjack
If this hasn’t been ingrained in you yet, just remember, the blackjack winning odds will always depend on the rules and deck sizes. That said, the long-term odds always favor the house. In other words, for each bet you place the casino is expecting to profit a certain percentage off of it.
While it is true basic strategy will improve your chances of winning at blackjack, you cannot omit the fact that random chance will always play a role, making it a game of both skill and luck. For instance, the cards are shuffled, which makes it impossible to predict outcomes. Furthermore, you may be playing with other players who play erratically and do not follow the strategy. In some instances it is true that some bets, or hands, will defy the statistical probability – after all, the cards are drawn at random. Thus, the game is considered a game of both skill (due to basic strategy) and luck (due to the statistics and randomness involved).
Use Blackjack Odds to Win Unfavorable Hands
It is unavoidable to play unfavorable hands. As such, below is what you should do if you find yourself in situations with these select unfavorable hands.
- Hard 16 versus a dealer’s 7 or higher – It is best to hit, as the dealer is showing a strong upcard.
- Hard 16 versus a dealer’s 9, 10, or Ace – You should hit as a dealer bust is strongly unlikely.
- Pair of 8s – Splitting is advisable as an 8 plays better than a 16.
- Soft 18 versus a dealer’s 9, 10, or Ace – Avoid doubling as the dealer’s cards are too strong.
- Hard 12 to 14 versus a dealer’s 2-6 – It is tempting to hit but you should stand as the dealer has weak upcards.
Basic Blackjack Strategy
Basic blackjack strategy is determined by math and probability relative to the game rules and cards on the table. Many believe it was developed and solidified by Edward O. Thorp, who in 1960 wrote the book Beat the Dealer, which outlined the best possible actions one could take given each possible blackjack hand. In short, there are suggested decisions you should make based on the dealer’s upcard and your starting hand, as the scenarios in Bovada’s following chart show:
Decisions range from hitting, standing, doubling down, splitting, and sometimes surrendering (if allowed). Below are a few key decisions you should know in order to begin to master basic blackjack strategy. Additionally, it is never a bad idea to buy or refer to a blackjack odds table or blackjack odds chart to help you memorize each scenario.
- Stand on Hard 17+ – As a player, you should always stand on hard 17+. Attempting to build 21 from here will more than likely lead to you busting and losing your bet.
- Double Down on 11 – Always double down on an 11. This is because there are strong odds to receive an 8-10.
- Hit on 16 or less – If the dealer does not have a 2-6 card showing, it’s generally best to hit on a 16 or less. In some cases, you may need to refer to your blackjack odds table and table rules to make sure you should hit your 12 or 13.
- Split Aces and Eights – Always split a pair of Aces or Eights to create two separate hands that can lead to a higher win total should you beat the dealer.
- Double Down on Soft 19 versus a 6 – Even though your starting hand is strong you are playing the odds the dealer will bust and you can increase your winnings by doubling your bet.
- Always Split Pairs of 2s, 3s, 6s, 7s, and 9s versus 2-7 – In these cases, you’re hoping the dealer will bust and giving yourself a chance to win more money by increasing your bet while still maintaining good odds of not busting yourself.
There is a full glossary and blackjack terms in our expert guide.
Blackjack Payout
The most desirable hand in blackjack is 21 (or “blackjack”). There are two forms of this hand, a natural 21, which is when you are dealt two cards that equal 21. Or, you can make a 21 by hitting. When it comes to a natural blackjack there are different odds and payouts – below.
3:2 Blackjack Payout
The most common payout at casinos. Here, for every $10 you bet you will win $15. The house edge is 0.5%.
6:5 Blackjack Payout
Here, a $10 bet only earns $12 in profit, which is reduced down to 20% from 50% at 3:2. The house edge goes up to 1.9% at 6:5 tables.
Even Money Payout
Oftentimes casinos will offer even money as a choice. Here, you will win your bet 1:1. This increases the house edge to 2.8%.
Payout Blackjack House Edge 3:2 0.5% 6:5 1.9% Even-Money 2.8% The House Edge in Blackjack
In short, the house edge in blackjack, also known as house odds in blackjack, is a concept that refers to the casino’s long-term advantage over players. In other words, it is a statistical advantage held by the house, indicating a percentage of each bet that the casino expects to win on average over time.
The house edge will vary depending on the rules of the game – such as how many decks are involved, if players can resplit aces, whether or not dealers stay or hit on soft 17s and a few other details. Nevertheless, standard blackjack games online and in-person will likely have a house edge of 0.5%. This means for every $100 you bet you can expect to lose $0.50.
House edge is contingent upon the rules of the table and the math involved with blackjack. For example, when players and the dealer bust, the players lose their bets, even if the dealer also busts. This uneven payout structure gives the casino an edge. Additionally, the dealer’s actions, such as drawing cards after players have completed their hands, introduce a level of uncertainty that works in the house’s favor.
To combat the house edge, you should always play by the book. This means you should make well-informed decisions rooted in statistics and probability in order to give yourself the best chance of winning against the house. Such decisions vary each hand but we will cover this concept in greater detail below.
Dealer Actions
In Blackjack, the dealer follows specific rules for drawing cards. Typically, the dealer must hit on 16 or lower and stand on 17 or higher. This gives the dealer an advantage, as it introduces a level of uncertainty for players who must act before the dealer. If dealers do not have to stand on all 17s this changes the house edge.
Payouts
When both the player and the dealer bust (hands exceed 21), you will lose your bet, even though the dealer also busts. This uneven payout structure gives the casino an edge over time.
No Double Bets
If you are unable to double on certain hands such as after splitting this will impact your potential profits and thus the house odds in the blackjack game.
Deck Size
Most online betting sites use multiple decks of cards (e.g. 6 to 8 decks) to make card counting more challenging for players, which slightly increases the house edge. Games with fewer decks shift the odds in your favor, slightly.
Here is how deck size and rules of hitting soft 17 can change the house odds in blackjack.
Decks Dealer Hits on Soft 17 House Edge (%) 2 Yes 0.35% 4 Yes 0.55% 6 Yes 0.60% 8 Yes 0.65% Blackjack Payouts
Standard blackjack (an ace and a 10-value card) typically pays 3:2. However, the payout for most other winning hands is 1:1, which again favors the casino.
Dealer’s Bust Probability
The below blackjack odds chart is geared towards the probability of a dealer bust based on the dealer’s face-up card. This blackjack odds chart was generated by factoring in the standard rules of a six-deck blackjack game. Please note that some odds may change depending on the rules at the table and the number of decks but for all intents and purposes, these are the most common odds you will encounter online.
Dealer’s Card Probability standing on 17 Probability hitting on 17 Ace 17% 20% 2 35% 26% 3 37% 38% 4 40% 40% 5 42% 42% 6 42% 44% 7 26% 26% 8 24% 24% 9 23% 23% 10 23% 23% Choosing the Right Blackjack Game
When visiting an online casino you will notice there will be several different blackjack games to choose from. As such, it’s important to make an informed decision about which game is right for you. Here are some key factors to consider when selecting the right blackjack game.
- Number of Decks – The number of decks used in a game directly impacts the house edge. Generally, the more decks involved, the higher the house edge. Single-deck blackjack often stands out as the best option for players seeking better odds, as it has the lowest house edge relative to other games.
- Rules on Soft 17 – The dealer’s actions on soft 17 (an ace and a 6) can impact winning odds a lot. When the dealer hits on soft 17, the house edge tends to be higher. Conversely, when the dealer stands on soft 17, you will have a slightly better advantage.
- Payout for Blackjack – The payout ratio for blackjack can significantly influence the odds of winning blackjack. Look for games that pay 3:2 as opposed to 6:5.
- Live Blackjack Options – Many online casinos offer live dealer blackjack games that replicate the experience of playing at a retail casino. Be sure to pay strong attention to the posted rules as these variations may have higher minimum bets and a high house edge.
- Surrender Availability – In some instances, casinos may provide you with an option to surrender, which is of great advantage. Here, you will receive half of your bet back if you “give up” and fold your hand. Tables with surrender are often good choices.
You can get more blackjack tips with our guide.
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In closing, to be a successful blackjack player you must commit to memorizing house odds for blackjack and the overall odds of winning in blackjack based on each possible hand scenario. By doing so, you are removing the guesswork and relying on math to give yourself the best possible odds at winning blackjack.
If you’re struggling with memorization, you can pick up a blackjack odds card to reference during a game. This will help you to learn the basic strategy little by little. Additionally, blackjack odds calculators exist online, which in essence are digital versions of blackjack odds cards – so you can simply look up various odds and hand scenarios as needed during online gameplay.
All-in-all, playing blackjack and studying blackjack odds are the two best ways to enhance your understanding of the game. Just remember to always play basic strategy and look for the best blackjack odds – e.g. table rules, betting limits, etc. Combining these approaches will help you enjoy the game and help you to profit from time to time.
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Cameron Dhaliwal
Cameron Dhaliwal
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